The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is poised to become a major player in the global gaming industry, with potential annual gross gaming revenue (GGR) reaching $3 billion to $5 billion, according to Morgan Stanley. This projection puts the UAE in direct competition with established markets like Singapore. As the UAE strides toward establishing regulated casino operations, major industry players like Wynn Resorts and MGM Resorts International are already positioning themselves to capitalise on this emerging market. 

Wynn Resorts has begun construction on the first regulated casino resort in the Arab world, located on Al Marjan Island in Ras Al Khaimah (RAK). MGM Resorts has also signalled its intention to enter the market by pursuing a gaming licence in Abu Dhabi. Despite the absence of official regulatory approval for casino gaming, the growth potential is substantial. 

Key factors to drive UAE’s casino market growth 

Morgan Stanley’s analysis draws comparisons between the UAE and Singapore, noting that Ras Al Khaimah and Dubai share similar demand drivers. The UAE’s larger population, robust tourism sector, and abundance of luxury hotels could help it match or surpass Singapore’s casino market. The UAE’s strategic location near Europe and Southern Asia makes it a prime destination for international visitors, which could further fuel the casino industry’s growth.  Wynn’s Al Marjan Island resort alone is projected to generate $1.4 billion in annual GGR once fully operational. To reach the upper end of Morgan Stanley’s $5 billion estimate, the UAE will need additional casino venues, potentially allowing residents to participate in gaming activities, which could significantly boost revenue. 

UAE could surpass Singapore’s casino development 

While Singapore operates two integrated resorts (IRs), Morgan Stanley suggests that the UAE may eventually exceed this number. Industry estimates indicate that up to four major casino resorts could be established across the Emirates in the long term. The success of the UAE’s casino industry will largely depend on the regulatory framework and the number of licenses granted. 

International tourism is expected to be a key driver of casino revenue, with visitors from Europe and Southern Asia providing a steady customer base. However, allowing UAE locals to participate in casino gaming could greatly enhance the industry’s growth, particularly given the rising number of ultra-high-net-worth individuals in the country. 

Regulatory hurdles and geopolitical challenges 

Despite the optimistic outlook, the UAE faces several challenges, primarily the lack of a commercial gaming licence framework. Establishing a legal structure for casino operations will be critical for the market’s success. Geopolitical risks in the region may also affect investor confidence and long-term stability. 

Morgan Stanley remains positive about the UAE’s ability to overcome these challenges. The investment bank also highlights a favourable gaming tax environment, with a proposed tax rate of 10 to 12 percent, which could attract more international operators to the market. 

Impact on the global gaming industry 

The expansion of the UAE’s casino industry is expected to complement existing gaming markets. Historical trends suggest that the introduction of new gaming hubs, such as Singapore in 2010, did not negatively impact established markets like Macau. Macau’s GGR continued to grow after Singapore launched its casinos.  Morgan Stanley’s report indicates that the UAE has the potential to make a significant contribution to global gaming revenues. As the nation moves closer to legalising and expanding its casino sector, it is expected to boost overall GGR without undermining the success of other regions.